Greater friction will also arise as a result on an expected downturn in the US economy, anticipated difficulties in US-China relations, and greater debate between the United States and Japanese and South Korean allies over military bases, host nation support, and other alliance arrangements. It will be strong and uniform in resisting expected US unilateral actions, especially regarding political issues and values such as human rights and democracy, that will be seen to serve US interests at the expense of that national sovereignty of regional states. Nevertheless, growing regional resistance to US policies and interests is likely. ![]() Meanwhile, the ability of regional countries to work together against US policies and interests will be offset to some degree by intraregional rivalries (notably between China and Japan), and by diverging interests (for example, Southeast Asian agricultural exporters support US-backed efforts to open world farm markets while Japan and South Korea remain strongly opposed). Regional states also will continue to conform to varying degrees with US-backed international norms and international organizations. Acknowledging US superpower status well into the 21st century, regional powers do not seek to confront the United States militarily or to cut off advantageous economic ties with the dynamic US economy. This situation will come despite continued strong regional dependence on the US economy and general support for a continued US military presence in the region. Sixty US Intelligence Community, other Executive Branch, congressional, and nongovernment experts participated actively in discussions following the formal papers and commentaries, reinforcing the findings presented below.Ĭonference participants judged that developing trends presage more divergenceīetween the United States and key East Asian countries and more difficulties In what ways East Asian states would be likely to collaborate in opposition to US policies and interests.Whether divergence or convergence between East Asian states and the United States was more likely on security, economic, or political/values questions. ![]()
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